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U.N. Hopes Ex-Rebels Will Buy Into Kosovo Peace Deal

2007.03.09. 12:24 oliverhannak

March 9, 2007

VITINA, Kosovo, March 8 — Hajriz Jakupi is not happy. Over the past few weeks Mr. Jakupi, a former guerrilla fighter, has been learning the details of a settlement that most of the ethnic Albanians who dominate Kosovo say should lead to an independent state. That is a dream that he and the other Albanians have long been awaiting.

It is the quid pro quo that angers him: that the relatively few Serbs living in Kosovo would have control over certain pockets that include a number of Albanian villages, one of which is his own, just outside this town.

“It’s an offense,” Mr. Jakupi said, raising his voice. “It is our territory, it is our land,” he said, speaking of the ethnic Albanians who because of the planned boundaries would become a minority in the municipality he comes from.

How former fighters like Mr. Jakupi behave in the next weeks and months will be crucial to the success of the plan devised by the United Nations, which would enable the Albanians to seek recognition as an independent state. For now, Mr. Jakupi said, he will express his opposition “in a peaceful manner.”

The calculation of the United Nations is that people like Mr. Jakupi and other former fighters in the Albanian rebel group called the Kosovo Liberation Army will accept the deal, since it gives the Albanian population considerable independence, though with a dose of international supervision.

The United Nations hopes to scale back a multibillion-dollar exercise in which it has been engaged for nearly eight years, tying down thousands of peacekeeping troops. Its proposals, which have taken more than a year to prepare, are expected to go to the Security Council for a vote by June.

But as planning proceeds, there is also a worry that things might go wrong, and not only among people like Mr. Jakupi, who have been quick to fight before.

Mr. Jakupi, 35, leads a group of former fighters from the Kosovo Liberation Army, which waged an insurgency against Serbian security forces from 1997 to 1999, a conflict that took 10,000 lives and ultimately forced NATO to intervene. Some of his colleagues were at the center of two other insurgencies, in Macedonia and southern Serbia, in 2001.

Much also depends on Serbia. It is loath to lose Kosovo, a province it controlled for most of the 20th century and regards as central to its history and identity. Many Serbs living in Kosovo are weighing whether to leave. There is also worry that Serbia will simply hold on to that northern part of Kosovo where the Serbs are centered, splitting the province and not recognizing the new arrangements on the ground. The United Nations and NATO have never been able to exert dominance in that area.

That could provoke renewed conflict, top United Nations officials and regional experts warn, from armed ethnic Albanians determined to retain Kosovo’s current boundaries.

Another player in addressing the issue is Russia, which has hinted that it might veto the settlement in the Security Council.

“If independence is not recognized, I think people will take up arms,” Mr. Jakupi said. “It is the minimum we can accept. This is what our heroes gave their lives for in the war.”

Even if things go well, international and local officials say, ethnic divisions will not allow the quick exit of peacekeepers and administrators that other countries involved in the planning hope for.

Europe and the United States will need to play the role of arbitrator in the divided and economically backward region for years, according to this view, having some oversight over the new government and an ability to amend laws and remove public officials.

Kosovo has been run by the United Nations since June 1999, after a 78-day NATO-led bombing campaign forced out the Serbian security forces accused of atrocities against ethnic Albanians.

Years later there is little doubt among United Nations officials that their time here should come to an end, allowing the European Union to take the lead, though with responsibilities much reduced from those the United Nations had and with most decision-making powers in the hands of the Albanian-led government.

Ethnic Albanians are increasingly impatient to control their own affairs and have taken their anger out against the United Nations. There are frequent protests against the United Nations in Pristina, the regional capital, most recently on Saturday, when several thousand people marched past the United Nations headquarters shouting, “U.N. out.”

Under proposals by the United Nations’ chief negotiator for Kosovo, Martti Ahtisaari, the United Nations would be replaced by a European Union-led mission with limited but real powers, but Kosovo would run considerable operations on its own.

Controls would be put in place to protect minorities. Serbian areas would control their own affairs in health and education in five new municipalities, with some funds from the Serbian government. The European Commission has allocated 120 million euros (about $158 million) over three years to help the minority communities adjust.

For the Serbs, “this is attractive, if they engage,” said Torbjorn Sohlstrom, the European Union official in charge of planning for the next administration.

But Serbia’s record of engagement in Kosovo suggests that ordinary Serbs may not interact with the new government as much as European officials might wish.

For six years Serbia has been putting pressure on Serbs living in Kosovo to keep them from cooperating with international or Albanian institutions here, threatening to dock the pay of government workers like teachers or hospital workers or to cut off their pensions.

Serbia’s prime minister, Vojislav Kostunica, a nationalist, has said his government will never recognize an independent Kosovo.

“It will be very hard to implement if the Serbian government is against it,” said Oliver Ivanovic, one of a handful of Serbian politicians who take part in ethnic-Albanian-dominated institutions in Kosovo.

Others are also worried that things not will proceed by the book, most notably in the Serbian-dominated north of Kosovo.

“Here we are just a few months from settlement day and we don’t know how or what to do,” said Kim Vetting, an adviser with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. “How do we maintain control there? Nobody is coming up with any answer.”

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